MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdea08e1a8c0ac88b4dde4bc2ef3a0be04df3ab74d302df3403da7257b03adb94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 52c | 2,218$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.68 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 39c | 770.98$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.8 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 52c | 586.92$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.22 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Under | 59c | 518.04$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.97 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 42c | 378.58$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.7 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 316.41$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.37 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 49c | 224.51$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.5 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Over | 51c | 222.29$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.37 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 49c | 214.29$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.29 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Over | 38c | 213$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 49c | 210$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 48c | 206.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.63 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 184.28$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Under | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -6.9wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 52c | 132.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 48c | 103.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 56c | 99.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 96.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…ba78backed Over | 33c | 60.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…8d08backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 43.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 52c | 39.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 51c | 33.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 51c | 31.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 52c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 48c | 22.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 51c | 22.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 52c | 21.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 49c | 21.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 63c | 17.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh PiratesBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.