Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdea547c90d40e4f1e7e50049b2b6c2fc3d51b1bee537f8ffab516562cfd976dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof South America Rejects, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69bf…0c5dbacked South America Rejects | 40c | 2,004$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.58 | 365 | 47.7%174 W · 191 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked South America Rejects | 32c | 1,652$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.71 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Heroic | 70c | 1,454$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.94 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Heroic | 68c | 1,265$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.71 | 400 | 51.5%206 W · 194 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked South America Rejects | 35c | 910.53$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.03 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Heroic | 71c | 866.16$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.23 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3f…ab65backed Heroic | 65c | 858$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.3 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Heroic | 69c | 810.54$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.11 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Heroic | 79c | 729.46$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.58 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Heroic | 64c | 484.14$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.69 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Heroic | 66c | 407.98$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.71 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Heroic | 79c | 384.1$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.02 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed South America Rejects | 34c | 300.42$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.14 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Heroic | 73c | 279.79$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x523b…cd5abacked South America Rejects | 35c | 275.4$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Heroic | 65c | 254.99$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.2 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf84c…d035backed South America Rejects | 25c | 222.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.36per pick | 51cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Heroic | 78c | 214.77$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked South America Rejects | 30c | 191.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked South America Rejects | 28c | 180.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heroic | 78c | 157.56$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…3855backed South America Rejects | 17c | 141.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 173 | 37.6%65 W · 108 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed South America Rejects | 32c | 134$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…4498backed Heroic | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked South America Rejects | 38c | 99.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9221…9419backed South America Rejects | 28c | 94.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Heroic | 67c | 87.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed South America Rejects | 16c | 84.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Heroic | 75c | 78.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Heroic | 62c | 75.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked South America Rejects | 21c | 68.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 245 | 18.8%46 W · 199 L | -31.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xde58…b901backed Heroic | 73c | 67.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed South America Rejects | 29c | 63.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…7b3fbacked South America Rejects | 26c | 58.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0a…caf5backed South America Rejects | 29c | 58.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…cc8abacked Heroic | 73c | 53.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked South America Rejects | 30c | 52.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Heroic | 63c | 41.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22d6…b7b5backed Heroic | 76c | 38.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…a0c9backed South America Rejects | 31c | 37.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…b264backed Heroic | 68c | 36.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Heroic | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96d4…a6d2backed South America Rejects | 34c | 34.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8832…1fc4backed South America Rejects | 40c | 31.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Heroic | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Heroic | 70c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 279 | 52.3%146 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb354…7d49backed Heroic | 76c | 15.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic (BO3) - DreamLeague South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsHeroic won
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerSouth America Rejects won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.