TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
South America Rejectsof South America Rejects, Heroic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,601
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,209

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,601 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9eca…5a59backed Heroic63c19,633$12,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,387.3240051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed South America Rejects37c4,725$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.671,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked South America Rejects42c4,435$1,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,591.751,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked South America Rejects37c3,979$1,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,521.8713854.3%75 W · 63 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked Heroic65c1,949$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.9316945%76 W · 93 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5615…3199backed South America Rejects56c1,942$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.091850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked South America Rejects54c1,561$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.0373841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked South America Rejects38c1,421$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.1926843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked South America Rejects38c1,267$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.3936547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked South America Rejects39c1,186$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.1267043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Heroic61c1,041$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.311,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d3f…ab65backed South America Rejects37c999.95$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.979749.5%48 W · 49 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked South America Rejects37c893.65$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.982,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked Heroic64c506.09$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.3917954.2%97 W · 82 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x006a…14edbacked Heroic35c499.99$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17511960.5%72 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked South America Rejects69c490.46$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.0892056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd4f9…0a00backed Heroic63c465.62$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.349158.2%53 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Heroic63c463.18$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.9746664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed South America Rejects35c425.23$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed South America Rejects38c408.1$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.7552243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked South America Rejects54c346.45$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.9626956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked South America Rejects39c338.43$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.4455251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf4…181ebacked Heroic68c330.88$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.8510770.1%75 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked South America Rejects42c323.65$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.4736654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed South America Rejects34c310.76$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.692,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Heroic62c293.53$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.9986659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2494…17b3backed South America Rejects36c263.97$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.786448.4%31 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked South America Rejects36c237.8$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.361,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed South America Rejects45c221.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.091,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed South America Rejects45c213.61$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.7420350.7%103 W · 100 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Heroic64c145.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.741,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed South America Rejects34c145.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.245251.9%27 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed South America Rejects34c145.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+50.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked South America Rejects34c145.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.24450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked South America Rejects34c145.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.24450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked South America Rejects34c145.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.24633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b8f…f31bbacked South America Rejects34c145.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked South America Rejects34c145.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed South America Rejects34c145.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.24850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed South America Rejects34c145.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.242839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked South America Rejects34c145.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.24560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+28.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed South America Rejects34c145.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.24475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+55.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked South America Rejects34c145.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+50.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed South America Rejects34c145.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.248253.7%44 W · 38 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed South America Rejects34c145.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed South America Rejects34c145.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed South America Rejects51c144.39$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9757654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed South America Rejects35c143.39$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.791844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked South America Rejects34c141.24$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.22450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed South America Rejects34c141.24$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.22450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6687…b9ddbacked South America Rejects35c137.29$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x823b…59e9backed South America Rejects76c129.68$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.126349.2%31 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06d9…7cfbbacked Heroic61c129.22$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.620151.2%103 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed South America Rejects38c113.97$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.113152.7%69 W · 62 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b4…d225backed Heroic15c113.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked South America Rejects34c112.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed South America Rejects40c112.97$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4630647.4%145 W · 161 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b62…12edbacked Heroic73c103.55$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.01771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x523b…cd5abacked South America Rejects41c103.21$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.93661.1%22 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed South America Rejects38c101.35$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8441037.3%153 W · 257 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed Heroic10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010738.3%41 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf84c…d035backed Heroic74c96.48$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.41315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.6wins-0.36per pick51cpaid-75.3%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x7d84…a7bdbacked South America Rejects35c96.1$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.462665.4%17 W · 9 L+4.7wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xea8d…89b1backed South America Rejects35c68.64$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed South America Rejects77c66.97$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5165625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked South America Rejects70c63.94$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.920954.5%114 W · 95 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf456…3855backed South America Rejects43c58.4$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2917337.6%65 W · 108 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dce…1db3backed Heroic40c56.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.45540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+122.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked South America Rejects37c52.01$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7764123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a3e…1316backed Heroic75c44.77$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.582544%11 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-32.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9637…cefdbacked South America Rejects75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101877.8%14 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21a5…aaadbacked Heroic40c39.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbf0…4046backed Heroic72c35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.24259.5%25 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46dc…92c3backed South America Rejects40c34.28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.57887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick55cpaid+65.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5357…3c32backed Heroic63c32.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96d4…a6d2backed South America Rejects39c29.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked Heroic69c28.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8520452.9%108 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd2d…d7f8backed Heroic63c22.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.986055%33 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbba9…0e39backed South America Rejects57c19.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8dc…56bcbacked South America Rejects73c16.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfe9…fa1ebacked Heroic62c16.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.