Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdeaaeae3b694155c8cac2cc39713f6a746d5d465396045c7529baa89d7f73fdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Yes | 26c | 6,815$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,771.83 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Yes | 25c | 4,084$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.9 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 3,854$2,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.73 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 26c | 3,846$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.96 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 75c | 3,745$2,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.5 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 76c | 1,322$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.06 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 26c | 1,154$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 74c | 1,132$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.23 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 6c | 1,039$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 24c | 943.32$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.4 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 78c | 704.59$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.4 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…d80abacked No | 74c | 566.9$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 74c | 540$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 25c | 499.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 74c | 487.7$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.8 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 24c | 404.48$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 26c | 365$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 26c | 254$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 74c | 241.34$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa208…aa91backed Yes | 25c | 194.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e73…e5c1backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 18c | 178$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 76c | 131.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x943d…7aa1backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 22c | 97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4696…09f2backed Yes | 26c | 55.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Yes | 27c | 55.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 74c | 47.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Yes | 26c | 43.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ff…40b4backed Yes | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 74c | 31.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…df55backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…6b35backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc587…1630backed No | 75c | 15.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-11-22?Yes won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-11-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.