Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-11-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffefbebd7d5dbf05da62d1707a888379ce8c8398acfbb996a54bb3de3102c587
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Yes | 28c | 6,807$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880.3 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e85…1f81backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 74c | 4,000$2,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…2c9abacked No | 74c | 2,215$1,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.99 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 25c | 1,471$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.04 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 1,392$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.75 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 5c | 1,298$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 24c | 695.71$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.49 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…e4c7backed No | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 73c | 620$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.4 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed No | 73c | 618.49$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.99 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.24per pick | 69cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 26c | 476.33$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.85 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 77c | 471.67$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.6 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 465.9$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked No | 76c | 450$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 26c | 422.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed No | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed No | 73c | 360$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 26c | 298.19$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 72c | 272.36$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.26 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed No | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 210.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 27c | 201$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 5c | 200.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x810c…51cabacked No | 74c | 195.95$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa208…aa91backed Yes | 26c | 195$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…63d9backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 7c | 184$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked No | 72c | 166.71$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…a36dbacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…728cbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac3…ef53backed Yes | 30c | 100.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…4d23backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 75c | 93.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked No | 75c | 80.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed No | 75c | 77.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81d8…2b8dbacked No | 73c | 74.29$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 28c | 70.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 70c | 69.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked No | 73c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…b417backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…79c6backed No | 77c | 41.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed No | 73c | 41.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ec…e4b4backed No | 72c | 30.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x428b…d8aebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x383c…0d96backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked No | 70c | 20.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…6b35backed No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-11-22?this page
- Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-11-22?Yes won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.