Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdebc9bd306c64e6bbf6c697c41932f93fcfdd09cd68822a72ccc1ce4a6870caa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 258.79$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.58 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 210.71$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.91 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 181.86$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.3 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 48c | 173.14$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.62 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 140.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 139.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 132.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 69c | 124.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 122.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 120.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 30c | 112.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 109.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.36 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 15c | 101$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…3ebdbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 18c | 86.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…1edbbacked Yes | 49c | 84.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 74c | 81.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 18c | 78.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 75c | 71.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 68c | 70.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 66.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 62.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 49.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 50c | 49.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 22c | 45.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 42.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 30c | 40.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…fdc7backed Yes | 29c | 39.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 66c | 37.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 33c | 33.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 69c | 23.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 22.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 73c | 17.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 15.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…c967backed No | 66c | 15.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.