Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdec996034b9a83adae5934018b04c4938f91153e81c8fa9b67771f3a76198972
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 79c | 835$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.49 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 585.12$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.92 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…8333backed No | 77c | 580.98$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 560.81$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 67c | 454$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.28 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 402.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 391.49$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 292.89$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.14 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 267.48$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.1 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 21c | 250$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 65c | 231.26$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.65 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 14c | 175.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.54 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 37c | 170.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.15 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 40c | 151.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 24c | 149.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.91 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 21c | 139.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.47 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 19c | 123.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 122.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.46 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 109.48$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 24c | 105$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 97.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 34c | 96.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 96.15$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 95.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 29c | 87.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 85.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 67c | 85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8385…89a4backed Yes | 26c | 72.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 65.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 63.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 79c | 62.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 27c | 59.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 57.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 41c | 46.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 33c | 46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 45.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 68c | 34.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 30.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 25.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 24.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa3…6721backed No | 78c | 22.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 64c | 22.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 77c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 71c | 19.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 15.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 13.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa158…acacbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 73°F or below on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.