Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90a8d21ba51995cf9ec07c7b104cc804042c4f75a67ce3b5522297665df88189
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 1,229$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.01 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 30c | 1,169$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.98 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 65c | 835.17$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.7 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 548.49$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.86 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 448.51$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 390.62$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 62c | 388$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.21 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 64c | 322.74$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.24 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 70c | 301.75$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.63 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 34c | 297.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 286.03$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 274$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 269.63$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.21 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 40c | 214$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 206.19$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 196.14$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 64c | 182.89$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 69c | 143.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 128.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 47c | 127.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 35c | 124$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…0020backed Yes | 64c | 123.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 62c | 117.05$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 34c | 114.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 105$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 49c | 104.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 99.82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 99.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 38c | 96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 14c | 94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.74 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 88.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 80.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 53c | 76.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 73.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 42c | 71.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 42c | 68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 64c | 65.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 63.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 40c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 56.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8385…89a4backed Yes | 36c | 52.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 62c | 49.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…9208backed No | 67c | 46.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 49c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 45.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 45.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 51c | 44.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 67c | 44.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7688…7d0dbacked Yes | 47c | 44.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0110…af5dbacked Yes | 69c | 42.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 68c | 41.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 33c | 41.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…bd79backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 67c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 41c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18e…b8bfbacked No | 44c | 36.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 32c | 36.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…af42backed No | 65c | 36.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 35.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…f3cebacked No | 68c | 34.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 35c | 31.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 29.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 37c | 29.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 37c | 29.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bb…fccabacked No | 66c | 28.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 64c | 27.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 73°F or below on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.