CS2 · resolved market
BLAST.tv Austin Major stage 2: paiN vs. Nemiga
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdecf536127be1764f0026bfa4bb6a35b2b990418eb9b11ca3937980984d0a7c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiNof paiN, Nemiga
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dcb…3e9ebacked paiN | 57c | 11,000$6,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,732.15 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Nemiga | 43c | 6,000$2,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,580 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Nemiga | 43c | 3,631$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.51 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked paiN | 58c | 2,252$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.45 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nemiga | 42c | 2,228$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.25 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Nemiga | 43c | 1,076$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.62 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6473…1fa0backed Nemiga | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d31…453abacked paiN | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed paiN | 58c | 842.72$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.7 | 646 | 52.8%341 W · 305 L | +26.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Nemiga | 43c | 805.21$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.24 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Nemiga | 45c | 774.39$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Nemiga | 45c | 727.49$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.63 | 755 | 50.6%382 W · 373 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked paiN | 57c | 701.75$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.75 | 817 | 51.7%422 W · 395 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5896…37b1backed Nemiga | 46c | 630$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…ce44backed paiN | 54c | 610$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…fe6bbacked paiN | 54c | 554.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.29 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfef…cc1ebacked paiN | 54c | 390$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc068…1688backed Nemiga | 46c | 370$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Nemiga | 47c | 290.17$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Nemiga | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842e…074cbacked paiN | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Nemiga | 44c | 215$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Nemiga | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Nemiga | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…54c8backed Nemiga | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6328…1375backed Nemiga | 42c | 100.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Nemiga | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db4…d97fbacked paiN | 56c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea8…9e5fbacked paiN | 52c | 81.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Nemiga | 50c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed paiN | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 225 | 56%126 W · 99 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed paiN | 50c | 51.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Nemiga | 50c | 51.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed paiN | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 178 | 47.8%85 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed paiN | 53c | 49.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb48…19b3backed Nemiga | 46c | 43.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ec…f816backed paiN | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…a649backed Nemiga | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee2…6473backed Nemiga | 42c | 28.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked paiN | 63c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked paiN | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.