Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Badosa (-1.5) vs Waltert (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf2b1049860897637dc3053547ae72f8a4c57f4d81d0f35b20d19d47ad4a6093
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Badosaof Badosa, Waltert
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Badosa | 50c | 4,017$2,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,008.72 | 348 | 57.2%199 W · 149 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4064…5f1ebacked Badosa | 50c | 3,897$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,953.31 | 280 | 39.3%110 W · 170 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Waltert | 50c | 3,751$1,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.56 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Waltert | 52c | 1,346$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Waltert | 49c | 1,149$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.81 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Waltert | 50c | 563.59$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.8 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Waltert | 48c | 386.36$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.45 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Waltert | 49c | 187$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Badosa | 47c | 158.85$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.76 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Waltert | 53c | 118.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Waltert | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Waltert | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Waltert | 51c | 97.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked Waltert | 53c | 95.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Waltert | 50c | 89.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Badosa | 47c | 76.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Badosa | 48c | 72.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Waltert | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…3abfbacked Waltert | 54c | 51.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 267 | 34.1%91 W · 176 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Badosa | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Waltert | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 726 | 38.8%282 W · 444 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Waltert | 50c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 586 | 65.5%384 W · 202 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Waltert | 50c | 21.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 330 | 48.8%161 W · 169 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…cebabacked Waltert | 50c | 21.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Badosa (-1.5) vs Waltert (+1.5)this page
- Bastad: Simona Waltert vs Paula BadosaPaula Badosa won
- Set 1 Winner: Waltert vs BadosaBadosa won
- Set 2 Winner: Waltert vs BadosaBadosa won
- Waltert vs. Badosa: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Waltert vs. Badosa: Match O/U 23.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.