La Liga · resolved market
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-03-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf2fb4a64a6fb42feab9594ea4f38bb892eaa3ae23cf7a5352c7b6cb551233ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc667…e68dbacked No | 0c | 32,878$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba8…cdb3backed No | 51c | 16,003$8,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,161.66 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…7976backed Yes | 49c | 13,940$6,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,109.55 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Yes | 48c | 9,126$4,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,790.9 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 44c | 5,946$2,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,616.6 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 51c | 5,545$2,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,839.71 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 52c | 4,754$2,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,486.08 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Yes | 48c | 4,610$2,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,384.77 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da6…7d01backed Yes | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 56c | 2,658$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.86 | 922 | 54.1%499 W · 423 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 4c | 2,037$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.62 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7434…2ff4backed Yes | 49c | 1,810$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.88 | 122 | 36.1%44 W · 78 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 36c | 1,102$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.13 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 47c | 902$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.57 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Yes | 49c | 839.12$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.12 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 52c | 756.25$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.94 | 836 | 50.7%424 W · 412 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 37c | 642.3$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.06 | 351 | 45.6%160 W · 191 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…8f42backed No | 52c | 428.86$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.01 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Yes | 45c | 363.84$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.21 | 178 | 56.7%101 W · 77 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes | 61c | 359$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.02 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 51c | 333.33$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.33 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Yes | 57c | 323.54$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.47 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Yes | 53c | 308.42$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.95 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 49c | 307.95$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.75 | 227 | 58.1%132 W · 95 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 48c | 267.47$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.07 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Yes | 45c | 248.43$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.76 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 38c | 247.05$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 635 | 53.1%337 W · 298 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…ad2cbacked Yes | 70c | 230$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 7c | 214.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 68c | 211.76$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 49c | 207.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.07 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0168…0905backed Yes | 46c | 201.83$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.04 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…817dbacked No | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Yes | 44c | 189.1$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 140 | 67.9%95 W · 45 L | +12.4wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 17c | 145.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 52c | 142.18$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.11 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00d…4251backed Yes | 72c | 138.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 17c | 113$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Yes | 45c | 106.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 68c | 102.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -15.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Yes | 43c | 102.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 90 | 33.3%30 W · 60 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 444 | 24.1%107 W · 337 L | -50.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 53c | 97.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 481 | 53.6%258 W · 223 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2608…4468backed No | 14c | 97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed No | 25c | 95.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 71c | 90.47$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 283 | 57.2%162 W · 121 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b77…1953backed Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 206 | 30.6%63 W · 143 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec1…de16backed Yes | 50c | 81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 53c | 79.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…a0f5backed Yes | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 71c | 78.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 357 | 59.4%212 W · 145 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 44c | 77.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 307 | 49.2%151 W · 156 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2502…87e5backed No | 53c | 67.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 46c | 60.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 56c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 35c | 58.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 413 | 23.2%96 W · 317 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 49c | 58.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 262 | 41.2%108 W · 154 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 324 | 44.8%145 W · 179 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081f…d5c0backed Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +6.8wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed No | 53c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x892b…a096backed Yes | 76c | 43.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10da…a09abacked Yes | 44c | 42.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 413 | 48.7%201 W · 212 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 55c | 40.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed No | 33c | 38.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…bcabbacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 60c | 33.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…4a7cbacked No | 55c | 32.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…a32ebacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked No | 51c | 28.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 227 | 60.4%137 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 60c | 22.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 180 | 62.2%112 W · 68 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed No | 54c | 22.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 71c | 20.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 126 | 56.3%71 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Yes | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 240 | 48.3%116 W · 124 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0782…b978backed Yes | 71c | 14.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-03-28?this page
- Will AD Ceuta FC vs. Cádiz CF end in a draw?No won
- Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-03-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.