UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf2fb6d50fb002b93d1299baf95f70e8c3bb7b2fbe3c6d4e7c7aa1cf1b23ac2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 50c | 41,650$20,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,825.1 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 50c | 20,879$10,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,425.22 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 50c | 10,192$5,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,104.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 50c | 10,192$5,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,104.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked Over | 48c | 6,204$2,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,233.11 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfed2…4671backed Under | 52c | 2,434$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2258…0eecbacked Under | 51c | 1,968$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 52c | 1,798$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.11 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…e9a1backed Under | 52c | 1,115$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 950.57$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.79 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Over | 53c | 574.87$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.19 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 53c | 346.49$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.85 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Over | 50c | 336.18$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.09 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05d…ac5ebacked Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Under | 52c | 290$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 47c | 207.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Over | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 50c | 171.82$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 48c | 106$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Under | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…e6bfbacked Over | 51c | 81.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…f649backed Under | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68b…c39cbacked Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Under | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 52c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0994…8022backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…8e4abacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 50c | 55.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5760…40aabacked Over | 52c | 48.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a80…2dadbacked Over | 51c | 40.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Under | 50c | 37.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x800f…1535backed Over | 54c | 36.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8f…f793backed Over | 51c | 35.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Under | 50c | 33.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Under | 50c | 30.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…836dbacked Over | 48c | 24.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 53c | 20.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Under | 50c | 20.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…5582backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims)Roman Kopylov won
- Will Marco Tulio win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Roman Kopylov win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.