UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7f3253200680dc3cbad5c549f81170ee4f8566aaf95b08c7901ea0b382ac449
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed No | 66c | 8,500$5,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,609.9 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 34c | 7,840$2,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,174.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Yes | 38c | 700$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 62c | 700$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 34c | 582.51$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.46 | 360 | 48.3%174 W · 186 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 34c | 127$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 385 | 53.2%205 W · 180 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…fc2bbacked No | 67c | 74.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…4e8bbacked Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b01…e682backed Yes | 44c | 45.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 56c | 39.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…f649backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims)Roman Kopylov won
- Will Marco Tulio win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Roman Kopylov win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.