South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-08-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf5c8e1de79f99869744fd83edc6a8f64227e5995259ce23228029be52223708
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 10c | 10,501$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.58 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 46c | 2,257$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.63 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 13c | 1,524$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.84 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…c93abacked No | 23c | 1,247$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.6 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 558.7$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.09 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked No | 30c | 291.67$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 70c | 222$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 70c | 222$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 73c | 200.95$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 37c | 179.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 37c | 154.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 153.43$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed No | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 80c | 126.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 68c | 120.18$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Yes | 76c | 111.33$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 15c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 30c | 98.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked No | 36c | 66.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 30c | 64.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 133 | 73.7%98 W · 35 L | +22.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 75c | 53.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…53d2backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 54c | 38.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 68c | 36.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1040…ac10backed Yes | 71c | 26.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 51c | 25.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 71c | 21.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 167 | 51.5%86 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…f72abacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-08-16?this page
- Will CA Huracán win on 2026-08-16?No won
- Will CA Sarmiento vs. CA Huracán end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.