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MLB · resolved market

Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Texas Rangersof Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,730
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,674

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,730 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers75c814.31$607 inWon+$207.5212,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays39c407.2$157 inLost-$157.2211,60652.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L+210.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Toronto Blue Jays23c333$77 inLost-$76.591,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Texas Rangers37c226.59$84 inWon+$142.754,40147.5%2,090 W · 2,311 L-76.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed Toronto Blue Jays63c220.63$139 inLost-$13923266.4%154 W · 78 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Toronto Blue Jays26c212.97$55 inLost-$54.823,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+147.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee2e…8aeabacked Texas Rangers35c143$50 inWon+$93742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb64f…c3a9backed Toronto Blue Jays24c78$19 inLost-$18.7216253.1%86 W · 76 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Texas Rangers80c50$40 inWon+$102,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays65c48.62$31 inLost-$31.4111,05451.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L+137.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Toronto Blue Jays25c42.36$11 inLost-$10.877836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Toronto Blue Jays67c29.49$20 inLost-$19.8576858.1%446 W · 322 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e62…79f1backed Texas Rangers35c29.17$10 inWon+$18.9642047.9%201 W · 219 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.