MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58a4b77fb07452a30f59dec78a8e9efac8d50597ce3ffff898b3b036602ce132
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f0c…7ca5backed Under | 66c | 126,789$84,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84,293.18 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -7.9wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 33c | 66,430$22,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,349.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 24,805$8,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,395.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 33c | 16,563$5,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,020.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 34c | 14,339$4,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,396.92 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 1,917$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.8 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 45c | 1,351$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 56c | 1,317$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.95 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 46c | 1,304$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.34 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 60c | 1,097$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.74 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 46c | 850$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 34c | 830$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.9 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 78c | 535.08$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.85 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 54c | 276.27$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.19 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 57c | 270.09$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 54c | 215.56$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 54c | 190.04$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.62 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a01…1a3cbacked Over | 34c | 175.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.08 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 37c | 161.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.18 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 56c | 160.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 55c | 151$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 33c | 103.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 37c | 97.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 35c | 93.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 59c | 70.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Over | 35c | 64.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 33c | 50.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 160 | 57.5%92 W · 68 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 54c | 40.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 35.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 37c | 28.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 65c | 26.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 26.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 42c | 25.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 53c | 23.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 64c | 17.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 12.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.