MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f5d7c69c2ffd046dfe110eb2537ac330f6263d5f1e7b57110157ffc5fbb258b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 6,200$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,179.59 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 5,744$3,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,125.6 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Texas Rangers | 56c | 2,294$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.25 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe9…a70ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 531.2$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 520.84$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.17 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 483$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.18 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x560e…3cc9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 483$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 444$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.36 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5cadbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 396.33$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.39 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Texas Rangers | 55c | 325$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.25 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Texas Rangers | 55c | 300.9$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.15 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 283.02$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 279.13$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.03 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Texas Rangers | 67c | 227.06$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 190.04$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.52 | 226 | 53.1%120 W · 106 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Texas Rangers | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Texas Rangers | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Texas Rangers | 54c | 104.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Texas Rangers | 57c | 102.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…6732backed Texas Rangers | 71c | 98.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 93.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 93.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Texas Rangers | 70c | 90.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 88.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Texas Rangers | 56c | 69.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Texas Rangers | 57c | 68.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Texas Rangers | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Texas Rangers | 56c | 49.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…81f6backed Texas Rangers | 75c | 48.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 45.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 39.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Texas Rangers | 56c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb30…97e8backed Texas Rangers | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Texas Rangers | 77c | 29.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Texas Rangers | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Texas Rangers | 57c | 21.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Texas Rangers | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Texas Rangers | 75c | 18.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Texas Rangers | 67c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 12.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.