MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d82261d4527989d64e0d862ae555f3d6c86dad45a78bb1e5b9d2b3887cdea4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 45c | 2,242$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.34 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 47c | 1,663$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.83 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 1,282$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.43 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1736…ffcabacked Over | 53c | 773.68$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.63 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 762.68$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 637.02$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.92 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 554.42$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.67 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 53c | 488.85$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.76 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 59c | 469$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.6 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 53c | 449.05$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.05 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 326.93$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.59 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 326.79$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.32 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…e1cbbacked Over | 54c | 284$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.64 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Under | 46c | 239.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Under | 62c | 234.9$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.59 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 43c | 210$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.65 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 23c | 207.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.97 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 43c | 205.73$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5cadbacked Over | 53c | 87.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 47c | 66.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 70c | 62.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 66c | 51.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 44c | 45.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 42c | 45.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 53c | 42.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…d276backed Under | 67c | 42.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 42.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 73c | 40.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 47c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 52c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Under | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69f…ffeebacked Under | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 62c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 53c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…2bd2backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 60c | 17.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 70c | 16.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 12.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.