Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Duquesne Dukes vs. Dayton Flyers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfb7f055267af366606548ef535afd1a11eac71e53bf97f615647b8471eea406
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dayton Flyersof Duquesne Dukes, Dayton Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Duquesne Dukes | 26c | 1,863$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.83 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Dayton Flyers | 72c | 1,499$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.62 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Dayton Flyers | 77c | 1,360$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.21 | 349 | 43.3%151 W · 198 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Dayton Flyers | 74c | 1,150$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.85 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Duquesne Dukes | 27c | 813$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.63 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Duquesne Dukes | 28c | 757.14$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 934 | 47.9%447 W · 487 L | -19.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…5280backed Duquesne Dukes | 23c | 594.67$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.1 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Dayton Flyers | 73c | 577.69$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.98 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…a5debacked Duquesne Dukes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Dayton Flyers | 71c | 357$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.53 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Dayton Flyers | 77c | 347.03$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Duquesne Dukes | 23c | 300.02$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Duquesne Dukes | 29c | 299.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.76 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Duquesne Dukes | 28c | 284.22$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Duquesne Dukes | 9c | 282$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 176 | 27.8%49 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Dayton Flyers | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Duquesne Dukes | 24c | 214$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Dayton Flyers | 73c | 214$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…743dbacked Duquesne Dukes | 23c | 204.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Duquesne Dukes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Duquesne Dukes | 29c | 194$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Duquesne Dukes | 26c | 171.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Duquesne Dukes | 27c | 159.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 555 | 32.8%182 W · 373 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Dayton Flyers | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Dayton Flyers | 69c | 132.13$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Duquesne Dukes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Dayton Flyers | 74c | 109$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 397 | 42.8%170 W · 227 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Duquesne Dukes | 24c | 105.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Duquesne Dukes | 31c | 103.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Dayton Flyers | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a32…9875backed Duquesne Dukes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Duquesne Dukes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 254 | 38.2%97 W · 157 L | -14.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Duquesne Dukes | 20c | 98.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…5bacbacked Duquesne Dukes | 12c | 84.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Dayton Flyers | 75c | 65.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Dayton Flyers | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…1f83backed Dayton Flyers | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 646 | 58.8%380 W · 266 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…b054backed Dayton Flyers | 70c | 40.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 135 | 65.9%89 W · 46 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Duquesne Dukes | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…5ee6backed Dayton Flyers | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Dayton Flyers | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c3…9792backed Dayton Flyers | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 270 | 55.6%150 W · 120 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372a…b924backed Dayton Flyers | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Duquesne Dukes vs. Dayton Flyersthis page
- Duquesne Dukes vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 148.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.