Asian League · resolved market
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfb9f5dfac3ee5a5d3affaa8446453b26d5c0e63250529f69df264a60f0416c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 3c | 61,652$2,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,145.24 | 2,499 | 42.3%1,057 W · 1,442 L | +52.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 27c | 5,570$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,053.69 | 1,617 | 36.3%587 W · 1,030 L | -34.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 4,630$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,993.36 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…3e18backed Under | 1c | 2,955$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,925.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +858.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…ac20backed Under | 1c | 2,516$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,490.68 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 1c | 2,336$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.99 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 35c | 1,971$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.94 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8c…3d1abacked Over | 64c | 1,420$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 46c | 1,167$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.81 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…6a61backed Under | 1c | 1,005$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +756.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fd…32a0backed Over | 42c | 891.65$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.06 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 56c | 717.36$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.36 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 54c | 712.83$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.9 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…d93bbacked Under | 58c | 683.8$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0f…0e48backed Over | 5c | 630.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 57c | 590.78$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.97 | 2,397 | 37.8%905 W · 1,492 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…59fcbacked Over | 58c | 410$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed Over | 54c | 369.06$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.29 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 13c | 331.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.83 | 119 | 31.9%38 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…c32abacked Under | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +258.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 44c | 222.3$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.38 | 1,354 | 45.4%615 W · 739 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…d35bbacked Over | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 54c | 199.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.99 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 22c | 189.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.42 | 1,053 | 41.9%441 W · 612 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…087dbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed Over | 73c | 156.41$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 53c | 138.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…8fc6backed Under | 54c | 123.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 61c | 122.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Under | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…5795backed Under | 58c | 83.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 43c | 73.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 45c | 72.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 56c | 71.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 51c | 66.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f6…e559backed Under | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 58c | 64.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 421 | 51.3%216 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 27c | 54.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 192 | 68.2%131 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 150 | 35.3%53 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 55c | 44.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd89a…49a4backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…8867backed Over | 60c | 33.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 876 | 45.1%395 W · 481 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Under | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 50c | 29.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 87 | 6.9%6 W · 81 L | -21.4wins | -0.25per pick | 31cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1213…776fbacked Over | 63c | 27.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0896…5607backed Over | 61c | 27.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec94…9053backed Under | 73c | 27.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Under | 77c | 26.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Under | 75c | 23.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 46c | 22.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Over | 65c | 18.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.