Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebc25a8e85b8bcbdd81a7cea3f7077884fe11fb2d5d5d911cd885c35d211a23b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FCof Shanghai Shenhua FC, Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x278f…ef30backed Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 65c | 5,090$3,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.88 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Shanghai Shenhua FC | 36c | 3,146$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.19 | 1,617 | 36.3%587 W · 1,030 L | -34.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Shanghai Shenhua FC | 33c | 1,406$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.36 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 63c | 789.37$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.04 | 225 | 44%99 W · 126 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Shanghai Shenhua FC | 37c | 717.4$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.27 | 1,760 | 50.3%885 W · 875 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 63c | 539.7$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.72 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 62c | 509.6$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.65 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Shanghai Shenhua FC | 38c | 506.16$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.96 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Shanghai Shenhua FC | 11c | 312$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 1,053 | 41.9%441 W · 612 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Shanghai Shenhua FC | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 119 | 31.9%38 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Shanghai Shenhua FC | 35c | 174.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…db27backed Shanghai Shenhua FC | 35c | 171.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…7b70backed Shanghai Shenhua FC | 35c | 156$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…f403backed Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 62c | 106.16$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc096…9e8dbacked Shanghai Shenhua FC | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Shanghai Shenhua FC | 38c | 84.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Shanghai Shenhua FC | 37c | 68.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Shanghai Shenhua FC | 37c | 64.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Shanghai Shenhua FC | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 63c | 49.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 692 | 52.3%362 W · 330 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Shanghai Shenhua FC | 36c | 47.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 67c | 39.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1,354 | 45.4%615 W · 739 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 192 | 68.2%131 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Shanghai Shenhua FC | 38c | 30.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…1627backed Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 59 | 76.3%45 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 321 | 54.2%174 W · 147 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)this page
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.