Asian League · resolved market
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde09153cf232fec95da33c76470cc7f001028885658b0a25925e83a534d97d18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 47c | 5,908$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,107.52 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 57c | 2,962$1,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.92 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 2,352$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.35 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 2,058$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.06 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed Under | 38c | 1,844$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.93 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 54c | 1,775$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.44 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 51c | 1,558$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.72 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 813.6$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.01 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…9c7bbacked Under | 34c | 799.72$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.01 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 58c | 529.99$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 22c | 499.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 74c | 445.09$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.72 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fb…2de9backed Under | 74c | 415.23$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.11 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75fc…0a4cbacked Over | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 44c | 323.97$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.09 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 13c | 299.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 119 | 31.9%38 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 69c | 228.16$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.65 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…c32abacked Under | 38c | 217.31$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +258.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2a…e923backed Under | 39c | 202.64$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.66 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 11c | 149.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 150 | 35.3%53 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Under | 58c | 129.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 42c | 119.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 31c | 117.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Under | 75c | 105.46$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 24c | 94.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 73c | 86.9$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked Over | 16c | 81.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 76c | 74.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 26c | 66.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 54c | 66.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 31c | 64.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x497c…a9bbbacked Under | 22c | 64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +357.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Under | 51c | 62.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 31c | 60.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 57.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…3cd9backed Over | 67c | 57.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Under | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…d35bbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…b3edbacked Under | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b8…80b8backed Under | 74c | 40.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 38c | 26.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 88 | 6.8%6 W · 82 L | -22.0wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -78%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 75c | 25.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Over | 57c | 22.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…90b1backed Over | 50c | 21.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 107 | 73.8%79 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 326 | 54%176 W · 150 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 63c | 17.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2413…4216backed Over | 79c | 14.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.