Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Lukas Klein
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdff44bbb54b48dedaeea71dab940b2c785274ee6b21e06dc82f3da36618c9f99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kleinof Aguilar, Klein
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Klein | 50c | 5,118$2,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,558.89 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aguilar | 50c | 3,782$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.34 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…86bbbacked Aguilar | 49c | 1,528$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.16 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Klein | 57c | 838.96$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.47 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Klein | 58c | 825.84$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.21 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Aguilar | 50c | 656.66$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.55 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Aguilar | 38c | 631.56$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.4 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Aguilar | 42c | 613.16$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.92 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Aguilar | 39c | 519.15$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.91 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d1…68b3backed Aguilar | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Klein | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Klein | 57c | 433.33$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.77 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Aguilar | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 537 | 52.3%281 W · 256 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Aguilar | 47c | 318.63$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Klein | 57c | 297.73$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.01 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Klein | 71c | 255.15$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.29 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x711f…f51bbacked Aguilar | 33c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Klein | 61c | 186.61$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.51 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Aguilar | 50c | 146.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Klein | 65c | 109.17$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Aguilar | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Klein | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Aguilar | 38c | 68.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Klein | 53c | 63.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Aguilar | 54c | 60.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…e8e8backed Klein | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…da58backed Aguilar | 50c | 44.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…8b61backed Aguilar | 43c | 43.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Klein | 59c | 43.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…4dccbacked Aguilar | 50c | 38.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Klein | 58c | 34.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…bc18backed Aguilar | 52c | 34.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Klein | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc4…46c0backed Klein | 60c | 22.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked Klein | 61c | 20.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2538…b975backed Aguilar | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.