MLB · resolved market
Giants vs. Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdff9247175d49f4c77966f1214eebcc491a20d21748802bb78c50e1736f56e36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Padresof Giants, Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Giants | 42c | 2,410$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.04 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Giants | 41c | 1,833$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.52 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Padres | 59c | 1,561$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.89 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Padres | 58c | 1,406$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.36 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Padres | 59c | 1,356$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.93 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Giants | 41c | 1,312$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.77 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Giants | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Giants | 11c | 660.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Giants | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Padres | 55c | 410$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.5 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Giants | 43c | 356.49$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.29 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…b560backed Giants | 18c | 311.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf25…224cbacked Giants | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Padres | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Padres | 57c | 175.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Padres | 58c | 175.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Padres | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Giants | 43c | 167.86$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Padres | 58c | 161.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.41 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Padres | 67c | 138.49$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Padres | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Padres | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Giants | 43c | 99.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Giants | 42c | 80.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…6c96backed Padres | 57c | 78.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Padres | 60c | 53.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Giants | 40c | 47.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85f3…9ca0backed Giants | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Giants | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Giants | 43c | 37.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Padres | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Giants | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Padres | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Padres | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Padres | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.