AI · resolved market
AWS service disrupted by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe05deeac0c18014dd36d66d6bd39ce56805906f3966c786ed1998e68717f252b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x700f…7b54backed Yes | 26c | 6,002$1,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa0…dae4backed No | 74c | 4,202$3,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87dd…be4fbacked No | 75c | 1,800$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 62c | 607.91$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.16 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3722…1f0abacked Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -67%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 39c | 128.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 29c | 69.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d34…23b5backed Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed Yes | 48c | 41.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74fd…6a44backed Yes | 49c | 22.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…e295backed Yes | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.