NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe05e3564c31206210aca1405547cd8297400a358d3e83f734ecf058ec8210cd6

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bucksof Cavaliers, Bucks
Resolved: Oct 26, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $21,771
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $22,567

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,771 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cavaliers	51c	8,196$4,201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,201.08	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5a…8f58backed Cavaliers	51c	7,151$3,647 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,646.82	62	41.9%26 W · 36 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bucks	49c	6,315$3,094 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,220.51	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Bucks	56c	3,627$2,026 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,601.15	857	42.6%365 W · 492 L	-15.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks	49c	3,309$1,607 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,701.85	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Cavaliers	46c	1,932$893 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$893.25	471	44.2%208 W · 263 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Bucks	49c	1,682$825 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$857.62	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Bucks	49c	555$272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$283.05	853	47.9%409 W · 444 L	+8.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7b0…9fb0backed Bucks	55c	528.59$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$237.95	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44a0…c3b9backed Cavaliers	50c	499.06$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.53	275	47.6%131 W · 144 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Bucks	49c	426.2$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$219.49	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Bucks	50c	250$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125	79	39.2%31 W · 48 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Bucks	52c	250$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Bucks	49c	200$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Bucks	49c	115.91$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.88	300	53.3%160 W · 140 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cavaliers	49c	107.43$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.64	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe45d…f77ebacked Bucks	51c	107.43$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.64	253	36.8%93 W · 160 L	-10.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Bucks	56c	102$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.15	597	43.6%260 W · 337 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c0c…6825backed Bucks	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	60	58.3%35 W · 25 L	+5.3wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Cavaliers	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	218	38.1%83 W · 135 L	-9.3wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfba2…9becbacked Bucks	51c	98.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	39cpaid	+32%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcada…f2a3backed Bucks	52c	57.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+2.2wins	+0.10per pick	42cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers	40c	55$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Cavaliers	55c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	1,053	53.5%563 W · 490 L	-15.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x647d…3cd9backed Bucks	48c	40.38$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-2.4wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbed1…331bbacked Cavaliers	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe81…d081backed Bucks	51c	31.63$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.5	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-3.1wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc264…eb32backed Bucks	49c	30.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcaf…3ca6backed Bucks	49c	30.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54e4…5384backed Bucks	49c	30.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.19per pick	39cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2337…3a2cbacked Bucks	49c	30.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+2.8wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3e1…61edbacked Bucks	49c	30.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b83…ed1dbacked Bucks	49c	30.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9816…28a7backed Bucks	49c	30.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cda…9c9cbacked Bucks	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c14…4573backed Bucks	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9038…216cbacked Bucks	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94d6…89ecbacked Bucks	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.23per pick	52cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xabd1…844cbacked Bucks	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd817…b8e7backed Bucks	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f8…2d23backed Bucks	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa62b…faccbacked Bucks	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x326e…14c0backed Bucks	50c	24.96$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.47	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79fa…998fbacked Bucks	49c	24.45$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.47	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	+2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Cavaliers	50c	23.54$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.77	646	51.7%334 W · 312 L	-14.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe67f…ed37backed Bucks	50c	23.36$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.68	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-33%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Cavaliers	47c	22.45$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.61	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Bucks	48c	21$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.92	522	40%209 W · 313 L	-8.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea81…eeaebacked Bucks	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1407…ad3dbacked Bucks	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f4…eafabacked Bucks	51c	19.9$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.75	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c4…b0dcbacked Bucks	52c	19.62$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.42	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event