Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe05f6836ec185500697e2e518c1844dbeb5dc81ed55daa17e325c8e846688bc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 6c | 4,214$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,975.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 77c | 700$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 32c | 671.22$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.93 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.26 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed No | 2c | 499.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 335.38$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 19c | 225.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.73 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 224.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 8c | 208.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.59 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 18c | 188.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 32c | 165.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 157.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed Yes | 76c | 133.63$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 104.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 44c | 98.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 83.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 20c | 77.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 36c | 65.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 67c | 62.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed No | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 26c | 52.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 69c | 49.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 59c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked Yes | 72c | 37.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d42…a046backed No | 28c | 35.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 77c | 35.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 67c | 19.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x943a…8234backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C or higher on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.