Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe07129651123dc237485291181b63037c704503cebcd83d0882fd50ed1d1870b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 4ikibamboniof 4ikibamboni, Nande+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Nande+4 | 35c | 2,552$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.08 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed 4ikibamboni | 32c | 2,000$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.78 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Nande+4 | 68c | 999.99$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.99 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed 4ikibamboni | 80c | 751.73$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.73 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…a5edbacked 4ikibamboni | 29c | 667.82$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.15 | 406 | 44.6%181 W · 225 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked 4ikibamboni | 39c | 564.55$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.18 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked Nande+4 | 71c | 427.05$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.21 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed 4ikibamboni | 62c | 395.07$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.38 | 194 | 58.8%114 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed 4ikibamboni | 44c | 382.1$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.27 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Nande+4 | 38c | 370$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Nande+4 | 28c | 307.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Nande+4 | 50c | 294.65$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.98 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed 4ikibamboni | 60c | 287.27$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Nande+4 | 35c | 277.16$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Nande+4 | 59c | 195.12$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.21 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked 4ikibamboni | 44c | 194.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.95 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…66a5backed Nande+4 | 56c | 178.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…bd1ebacked Nande+4 | 56c | 173.48$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked 4ikibamboni | 66c | 163.92$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ed…041bbacked Nande+4 | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…6b31backed Nande+4 | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Nande+4 | 55c | 143.63$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Nande+4 | 51c | 137.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed 4ikibamboni | 42c | 119$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f31…a362backed Nande+4 | 55c | 109.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Nande+4 | 54c | 103.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Nande+4 | 31c | 92.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…6d99backed 4ikibamboni | 51c | 68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd776…4fb8backed 4ikibamboni | 46c | 67.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 109 | 39.4%43 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Nande+4 | 30c | 63.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed 4ikibamboni | 48c | 62.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nande+4 | 31c | 58.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked 4ikibamboni | 50c | 54.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Nande+4 | 42c | 51.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked 4ikibamboni | 61c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 148 | 56.8%84 W · 64 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d0…72f8backed 4ikibamboni | 54c | 46.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…1501backed 4ikibamboni | 45c | 45.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed 4ikibamboni | 49c | 45.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked 4ikibamboni | 69c | 41.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed 4ikibamboni | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked 4ikibamboni | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 176 | 36.9%65 W · 111 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed 4ikibamboni | 74c | 31.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 120 | 65.8%79 W · 41 L | +15.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…fbf1backed Nande+4 | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked 4ikibamboni | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed Nande+4 | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 39.6%67 W · 102 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2a…7682backed 4ikibamboni | 40c | 27.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked 4ikibamboni | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed 4ikibamboni | 68c | 20.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked 4ikibamboni | 74c | 18.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Nande+4 | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…66d1backed Nande+4 | 63c | 15.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Nande+4 | 68c | 15.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Nande+4 | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 (BO3) - European Pro League Group B4ikibamboni won
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 1 WinnerNande+4 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.