Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d1509f7382dc5fd9bacce5430ea54d4b9b70ed1a7ed58990a4eab5c207119a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nande+4of 4ikibamboni, Nande+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x913c…39b3backed 4ikibamboni | 50c | 5,815$2,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,936.2 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked 4ikibamboni | 62c | 4,525$2,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,803.21 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Nande+4 | 43c | 3,222$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,834.06 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Nande+4 | 44c | 2,281$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.83 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Nande+4 | 48c | 2,088$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.39 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nande+4 | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Nande+4 | 49c | 1,680$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.63 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed 4ikibamboni | 56c | 1,600$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.67 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Nande+4 | 70c | 831.44$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.35 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked 4ikibamboni | 52c | 605$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.7 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked 4ikibamboni | 55c | 597$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.66 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…bd1ebacked 4ikibamboni | 55c | 542.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.9 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Nande+4 | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…d109backed 4ikibamboni | 53c | 399.24$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.66 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…a5edbacked Nande+4 | 25c | 392.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.02 | 406 | 44.6%181 W · 225 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fd…9187backed 4ikibamboni | 49c | 378.8$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Nande+4 | 37c | 370$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed 4ikibamboni | 42c | 299.56$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.89 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe350…e494backed 4ikibamboni | 51c | 270.19$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.12 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Nande+4 | 47c | 238.81$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.46 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed 4ikibamboni | 45c | 223.46$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.44 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Nande+4 | 47c | 194.74$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.07 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Nande+4 | 46c | 190.45$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Nande+4 | 41c | 166.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.13 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Nande+4 | 26c | 153$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.22 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Nande+4 | 58c | 152.98$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.42 | 120 | 65.8%79 W · 41 L | +15.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Nande+4 | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed 4ikibamboni | 51c | 144.78$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 359 | 48.2%173 W · 186 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Nande+4 | 25c | 115.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.78 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…b26abacked Nande+4 | 57c | 110.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Nande+4 | 43c | 104$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed 4ikibamboni | 59c | 99.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f31…a362backed Nande+4 | 44c | 83.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Nande+4 | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…477bbacked Nande+4 | 67c | 72.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Nande+4 | 27c | 72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Nande+4 | 43c | 67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Nande+4 | 44c | 60.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 194 | 58.8%114 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…19f8backed Nande+4 | 47c | 57.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed 4ikibamboni | 58c | 54.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Nande+4 | 72c | 53.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Nande+4 | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked 4ikibamboni | 61c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 473 | 58.6%277 W · 196 L | +25.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…5bfdbacked Nande+4 | 41c | 39.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1e…2a7dbacked 4ikibamboni | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked 4ikibamboni | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…fbf1backed Nande+4 | 66c | 26.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed 4ikibamboni | 57c | 22.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd776…4fb8backed 4ikibamboni | 54c | 22.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 109 | 39.4%43 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked 4ikibamboni | 56c | 21.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed Nande+4 | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 169 | 39.6%67 W · 102 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed 4ikibamboni | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…1501backed Nande+4 | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 (BO3) - European Pro League Group B4ikibamboni won
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 2 Winner4ikibamboni won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.