Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe097e840b5ea84d71a0df136fae5dd347d2678fc4dd33d08eec288ba5fb0eda3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0050…cad1backed Yes | 25c | 508.08$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.19 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 28c | 338$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 308.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 18c | 220.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 208.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 193.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 176.72$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 160.84$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 156.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 142.86$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f08…7249backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 18c | 98.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 94.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 93.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 24c | 93.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 12c | 85.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 18c | 75.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 26c | 64.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 26c | 61.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 76c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 76c | 47.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 45.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 42.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 26.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…1780backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or below on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.