Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x454b22f4bea9e00cd803a825fed4f162abd50dbf9fe36cbc6938970781f475dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 390.34$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.89 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 371$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.89 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…2433backed No | 76c | 299$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 268.19$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 260.46$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 254.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 52c | 247.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.48 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 227.57$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.42 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 216.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 33c | 201.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 201.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 196.49$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 161$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 156.6$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 25c | 155.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 52c | 143.79$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 138.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 24c | 120.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 108.88$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 108.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 67c | 106.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 79c | 104.34$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 48c | 99.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 31c | 92.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 54c | 92.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 46c | 87.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 66c | 87.35$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…e0c1backed Yes | 33c | 74.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 71.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 32c | 71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 15c | 70.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed Yes | 20c | 68.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 46c | 66.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 63.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked Yes | 48c | 60.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 26c | 58.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 69c | 57.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 19c | 56.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 53.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 75c | 50.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 22c | 48.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 24c | 45.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 53c | 39.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 35.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 34.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 34.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 53c | 31.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 43c | 30.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 29.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 54c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 26.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 22.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 67c | 19.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 80c | 18.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 68c | 17.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb3…f9efbacked No | 80c | 16.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 71c | 16.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or below on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.