Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x384281399d3b669e5aeae80a7ab7871b01183a46de3dad2b7b283c5be398eac9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 1c | 2,246$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e61…e2bebacked Yes | 39c | 1,310$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 30c | 1,002$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.76 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 370.16$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.09 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 245.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.28 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 39c | 201.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 198.88$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 27c | 179.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 168.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 161$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 13c | 156$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 62c | 142.23$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 137.93$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 128.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 29c | 120.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 16c | 109.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 34c | 99.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 61c | 98.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 40c | 96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 94.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 91.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 87.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 79.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 72.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 37c | 64.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…e0c1backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 63.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 27c | 57.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 55.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 33c | 54.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 41c | 52.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 30c | 47.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 72c | 47.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 24c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 34c | 43.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 30c | 43.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 26c | 42.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 42.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 70c | 40.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked No | 76c | 39.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 66c | 38.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 37.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 34.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 70c | 30.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 30.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b4…6bb9backed No | 61c | 29.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 39c | 27.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 38c | 26.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 73c | 21.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 76c | 21.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 18.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 18.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…4faebacked No | 72c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…5301backed No | 61c | 17.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed No | 72c | 16.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…1780backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or below on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.