Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x450c126a17e286755baf71815fcd6111ff6a42dd51aa71947917fda0648eae97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 2c | 2,322$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 2c | 765.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 23c | 617$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 7c | 556.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.51 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 11c | 421$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.73 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 406.55$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.37 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 52c | 320.55$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.12 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 7c | 221.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 43c | 219.28$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.72 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 217.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 13c | 190$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 18c | 163.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 162.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.51 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 7c | 161.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.92 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 18c | 159.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 157.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.42 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 8c | 150.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.9 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 37c | 122.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 108.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 46c | 105.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 31c | 100.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 75c | 100.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 98.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed Yes | 15c | 96.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…831abacked Yes | 13c | 79.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.86 | 65 | 6.2%4 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 36c | 65.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 21c | 53.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b1…a8c2backed Yes | 21c | 52.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +367.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 46.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 79c | 40.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 31c | 36.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 69c | 18.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 79c | 18.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 75c | 17.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or below on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.