Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0b93fa705bbd923b773b309501b417d24ee5cd48d32b81a774487f78db73920
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 10c | 900$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.31 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…cda2backed Yes | 4c | 788.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 13c | 562.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed No | 63c | 432.71$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.86 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 12c | 372.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…e730backed Yes | 5c | 351.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 186 | 40.3%75 W · 111 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb612…fdd9backed Yes | 31c | 319.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…d7aebacked Yes | 41c | 279.97$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.99 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…3febbacked No | 80c | 250.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 231.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 9c | 225$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…0797backed Yes | 52c | 219.39$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.08 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 65c | 215.96$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…780fbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 11c | 181.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 75c | 140.36$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 14c | 131.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ab…33c1backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x104a…d487backed Yes | 51c | 98.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…49d9backed Yes | 41c | 93.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e8…0b17backed Yes | 40c | 85.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 51c | 67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…22fabacked No | 71c | 60.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…1aa0backed Yes | 19c | 56.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ea…b6b5backed Yes | 44c | 33.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39b…897dbacked Yes | 54c | 30.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 64c | 30.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 60c | 29.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 50c | 25.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 69°F or below on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 80°F or higher on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 76-77°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 78-79°F on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.