MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0c6d7773d84b84f5463c02785c880e8e35598e61e3402329ea1c6650304afe0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 53c | 4,335$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 481 | 45.3%218 W · 263 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994b…c047backed Under | 47c | 3,546$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,895.68 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 2,320$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283.47 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 1,972$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.48 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…e11cbacked Under | 46c | 1,919$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.22 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 47c | 1,729$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.32 | 900 | 53.6%482 W · 418 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 53c | 1,298$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.85 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…97d4backed Under | 57c | 1,168$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.42 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 53c | 881$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.93 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 47c | 576$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.28 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 54c | 501.37$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.73 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 54c | 422.2$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.09 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…6950backed Under | 46c | 271.74$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 54c | 265$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 47c | 221.02$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.14 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…e386backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed Over | 39c | 193.96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 40c | 164.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 45c | 134.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 128.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 54c | 120.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…4d94backed Under | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…b3e2backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…c25fbacked Under | 62c | 89.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 13c | 89.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Under | 45c | 86.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…13c0backed Under | 56c | 73.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 36c | 70.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 848 | 40.2%341 W · 507 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 41c | 55.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 49c | 51.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…2108backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Under | 49c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Under | 55c | 44.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e35…fe8cbacked Under | 60c | 42.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -9.2wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 54c | 38.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 59c | 33.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 53c | 33.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed Under | 46c | 32.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Over | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 54c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 59c | 22.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 54c | 21.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 58c | 21.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 54c | 20.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego PadresSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.