MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e6d6d262177c23f0f121e2cbf54d861ae6d919fc7e95da82d58bffe608659b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 4,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 2,984$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.71 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 2,694$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.59 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 15c | 1,012$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 47c | 901.42$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.21 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 811.44$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.38 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 79c | 760$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 742.03$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.48 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 717.39$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.39 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 19c | 693.71$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.81 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 660.48$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 622.57$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.71 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 582.28$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed San Diego Padres | 46c | 491.82$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.26 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…650bbacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 231.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 223.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.65 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 199.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 190.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 133$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed San Diego Padres | 22c | 102$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 101$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 25c | 81.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked San Diego Padres | 28c | 79.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres | 20c | 77.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 80c | 75.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 73.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 65.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 57.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 51.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…7aa6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 49.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 45.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 44.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 41.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 38.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 37.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 36.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 35.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed San Diego Padres | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 29.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego PadresSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.