NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0de79c19b8325c89f07b51b7d185f22efe47860bd144bccd4568e0c2fcce547
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 34c | 4,000$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 71c | 2,563$1,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.46 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 57c | 1,438$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.66 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 57c | 440.88$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.03 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 315.39$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.92 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Under | 77c | 271.95$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 22c | 241.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.69 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 44c | 190.59$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 55c | 187.5$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.77 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 37c | 179.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Over | 78c | 179$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.62 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 23c | 140.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.03 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed Under | 46c | 98.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 23c | 93.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Over | 12c | 85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 73c | 83.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 17c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…ff92backed Over | 49c | 71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed Over | 46c | 70.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Over | 50c | 60.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Over | 50c | 50.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 24c | 42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 78c | 35.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…78ffbacked Over | 50c | 20.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…f2aabacked Over | 56c | 19.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 55c | 19.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stars vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Flyers won
- Stars vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Stars vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Stars vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Stars vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.