NHL · resolved market
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3510575acb7e13dd8a7f4046dc21e01f164cc91c21e5cd17fadef7d1ee2799d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flyersof Stars, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Flyers | 62c | 33,000$20,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,540 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Stars | 38c | 31,635$12,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,021.25 | 403 | 51.9%209 W · 194 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Stars | 39c | 6,410$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 377 | 54.4%205 W · 172 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Flyers | 61c | 3,708$2,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.12 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Flyers | 61c | 1,418$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.02 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4880…5626backed Stars | 39c | 1,049$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.16 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Flyers | 61c | 874.62$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.1 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Flyers | 61c | 710.33$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.03 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Flyers | 62c | 645.17$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.51 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Stars | 39c | 641.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Flyers | 64c | 495.66$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.35 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Stars | 39c | 450.46$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.5 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Flyers | 61c | 394.24$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.67 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Stars | 39c | 316.34$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Stars | 36c | 309.71$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Flyers | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Stars | 38c | 274$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.12 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…fcd8backed Stars | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Stars | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a0…ff20backed Stars | 40c | 247.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.82 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Flyers | 60c | 242.18$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.87 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Flyers | 64c | 229$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.01 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Stars | 39c | 222.03$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 146 | 50%73 W · 73 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flyers | 66c | 212.35$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7193…ae51backed Flyers | 64c | 209.39$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.47 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Stars | 39c | 180$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Stars | 39c | 180$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Stars | 33c | 171$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Stars | 35c | 151$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Flyers | 62c | 124$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Flyers | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Flyers | 60c | 116.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Flyers | 79c | 97.61$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Flyers | 64c | 91.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed Stars | 36c | 91.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Stars | 36c | 83.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Stars | 36c | 81.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Flyers | 63c | 80.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Stars | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Stars | 37c | 75.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Stars | 36c | 65.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…e6bbbacked Stars | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Stars | 38c | 62.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc58a…b8f8backed Stars | 39c | 61.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 152 | 45.4%69 W · 83 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Stars | 35c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Stars | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Flyers | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Stars | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Flyers | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Flyers | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Flyers | 72c | 46.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Stars | 36c | 44.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…078dbacked Stars | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Flyers | 65c | 36.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Flyers | 63c | 33.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Flyers | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…6d55backed Stars | 39c | 32.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 125 | 53.6%67 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Flyers | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…a279backed Stars | 39c | 28.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Flyers | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6137…171ebacked Flyers | 66c | 20.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbc…f42bbacked Flyers | 65c | 19.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Flyers | 64c | 18.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 235 | 59.1%139 W · 96 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Flyers | 62c | 16.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d5…59e2backed Flyers | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)this page
- Stars vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Stars vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Stars vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Stars vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Stars vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.