South American Leagues · resolved market
Will EC Vitória vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0de7ddf0098e78de7dbde5cc4bbb38bcf40d4bf98331e69f7ae11901c0bc99a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,245$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.55 | 138 | 28.3%39 W · 99 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 75c | 767.85$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.32 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Yes | 26c | 453$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.78 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 26c | 406.92$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…cc75backed No | 75c | 341.33$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Yes | 26c | 307.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 19c | 288.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 16c | 275.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 20c | 251.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 20c | 136.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Yes | 9c | 132.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 75c | 105$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 22c | 99.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4549…0450backed Yes | 20c | 94.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 24c | 68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 25c | 58.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 201 | 42.3%85 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb648…c2ddbacked Yes | 25c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 45.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 25c | 43.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 38.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 108 | 80.6%87 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 75c | 32.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 75c | 30.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 29.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked No | 76c | 27.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…9cb4backed No | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9369…8b85backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe4…52d7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e16…fe0abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will EC Vitória vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?this page
- Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-02-10?Yes won
- Will EC Vitória win on 2026-02-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.