NHL · resolved market
Devils vs. Kings: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0f408e690549529ec2269e15e7ed77427ee9ab65e184740e4173d620d1239e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2861…b770backed Over | 54c | 2,351$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf108…83a3backed Over | 54c | 2,225$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117e…7478backed Over | 54c | 1,704$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc98c…ba11backed Under | 46c | 1,536$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a2…8cb7backed Over | 54c | 1,452$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…2729backed Over | 54c | 1,432$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…110dbacked Under | 46c | 1,365$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa496…c6a4backed Under | 46c | 1,362$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd56…ddc7backed Under | 46c | 1,123$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9993…a11cbacked Under | 46c | 1,102$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe496…002fbacked Over | 54c | 1,060$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7c…c52fbacked Under | 46c | 1,023$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe378…1faabacked Under | 46c | 989$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc022…7f91backed Under | 46c | 956$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…dffebacked Over | 54c | 936$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09c…bc3dbacked Under | 46c | 879$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f30…ac7fbacked Under | 46c | 825$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 45c | 209.09$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 45c | 120.79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 55c | 118.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…b9e9backed Over | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Devils vs. Kings: O/U 5.5this page
- Devils vs. KingsDevils won
- Devils vs. Kings: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.