MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0f8298432af96b54f184c06e3692187ef0ae9f01b28e14c326b191baf95a177
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 1,108$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.14 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 49c | 247.45$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.09 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 35c | 238$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 38c | 209.86$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 59c | 169.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 47c | 125$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7886…ec60backed Over | 65c | 108.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1a…72f3backed Under | 37c | 89.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d58…42fdbacked Over | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 47c | 50.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Over | 47c | 46.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 45c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21bb…c5dbbacked Over | 64c | 36.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed Over | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta BravesNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 13.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.