MLB · resolved market

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc43259b9db9750e77a159c82f7d9baa336a39806c2c2097a945be3eac6c3417

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $47,668
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $47,686

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,668 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd81e…e3d0backed Under	45c	10,371$4,666 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,666.11	322	51.6%166 W · 156 L	+8.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Under	47c	10,046$4,706 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,705.87	1,607	53.2%855 W · 752 L	+74.2wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over	53c	6,758$3,582 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,175.24	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	29c	4,608$1,349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,258.94	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over	53c	4,514$2,377 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,136.64	4,279	47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L	-83.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	55c	3,143$1,726 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,417.51	4,478	48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L	-47.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	56c	3,000$1,680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,320	447	49.2%220 W · 227 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	46c	2,605$1,199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,199.38	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbbd…d6f0backed Under	44c	2,235$983 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$983.4	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over	31c	1,951$603 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,348.37	4,381	44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L	+77.8wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over	55c	1,387$763 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$624.15	680	53.2%362 W · 318 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under	39c	1,329$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.68	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under	44c	1,083$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$476.72	1,725	50.1%864 W · 861 L	-4.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under	45c	1,050$472 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$472.49	556	53.4%297 W · 259 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over	55c	1,024$563 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460.8	2,290	51%1,167 W · 1,123 L	+23.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Over	55c	980.85$539 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$441.38	340	44.4%151 W · 189 L	-14.2wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under	45c	788$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.6	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	40c	455.83$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$273.82	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba7…67a1backed Over	55c	439.2$242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.64	370	52.2%193 W · 177 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over	57c	438.6$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.6	940	34.3%322 W · 618 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7be0…ca40backed Under	77c	433.8$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.24	87	75.9%66 W · 21 L	+9.7wins	+0.11per pick	65cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Over	28c	430$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$309.6	826	36.6%302 W · 524 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb8…3058backed Under	77c	400$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308	173	54.9%95 W · 78 L	-14.0wins	-0.08per pick	63cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf15b…000fbacked Over	55c	363.64$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.64	122	53.3%65 W · 57 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Over	28c	357.14$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.14	586	49.5%290 W · 296 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba62…3e29backed Over	56c	355.67$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155.67	221	49.3%109 W · 112 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	43c	296.54$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.51	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under	49c	272.68$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.13	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Over	47c	269.15$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.65	912	52.4%478 W · 434 L	+12.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under	44c	227.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	382	52.1%199 W · 183 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Under	42c	217$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.79	344	43.9%151 W · 193 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98bd…8a55backed Over	52c	181.64$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.64	92	58.7%54 W · 38 L	+5.4wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over	55c	180.84$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.38	2,291	52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L	+24.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over	52c	177$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.57	707	37.6%266 W · 441 L	+24.5wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under	45c	168.59$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.13	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xafca…92b4backed Under	55c	162.96$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.63	181	54.7%99 W · 82 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84b8…d83abacked Under	45c	133.33$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	49c	127.43$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.39	6,116	55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L	+344.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.5	2,995	50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L	-36.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e50…4b22backed Under	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	77	55.8%43 W · 34 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	167	53.9%90 W · 77 L	+10.2wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e1a…72f3backed Under	39c	90.61$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.55	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	+68.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over	56c	89.99$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.9	2,376	49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L	+17.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04ec…8ac9backed Under	43c	86$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.98	688	46.8%322 W · 366 L	+9.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over	53c	83.83$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.42	752	48.8%367 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Over	49c	80.21$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.73	4,169	50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L	+92.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e43…0306backed Over	43c	76.91$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.94	234	35%82 W · 152 L	-10.2wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under	44c	76$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.75	2,800	49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under	45c	73.35$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.01	3,832	42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under	34c	72.77$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1,814	49.1%891 W · 923 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-12%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc6d…31cebacked Over	33c	70.89$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.51	139	46.8%65 W · 74 L	+12.8wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x55d6…1f24backed Over	55c	69.35$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.21	312	58%181 W · 131 L	+15.0wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over	28c	64$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.08	3,208	51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L	+146.6wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	76c	56.93$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.27	1,865	52%970 W · 895 L	+50.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3603…22edbacked Over	47c	56.49$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.99	518	49.4%256 W · 262 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab8b…24ffbacked Under	51c	56.18$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.64	248	43.5%108 W · 140 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-23%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa23c…ae92backed Over	55c	54.55$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.55	162	51.9%84 W · 78 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over	57c	50.68$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.79	1,001	57.3%574 W · 427 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over	53c	50.28$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.59	1,927	17.2%331 W · 1,596 L	-320.3wins	-0.17per pick	34cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over	56c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	1,279	51.2%655 W · 624 L	-19.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Under	56c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	639	43.3%277 W · 362 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Under	45c	46.46$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	597	49.9%298 W · 299 L	+19.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Over	46c	43.37$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.27	873	70.1%612 W · 261 L	+91.6wins	+0.10per pick	60cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	58c	41.78$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.09	5,786	43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L	-192.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over	55c	41.28$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.56	2,945	47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Over	54c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.4	475	49.7%236 W · 239 L	+17.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over	54c	39.96$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.48	2,583	61.4%1,587 W · 996 L	+70.9wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13d0…4a70backed Over	28c	39$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.08	346	39.6%137 W · 209 L	-12.9wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4462…bfdfbacked Under	58c	38.6$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.23	36	25%9 W · 27 L	-11.8wins	-0.33per pick	58cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	28-0.19 edge/pick
0x522f…1164backed Under	48c	38$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.24	392	50.3%197 W · 195 L	+18.0wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over	46c	37.04$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.01	6,303	48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L	+181.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Over	37c	35.88$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.74	904	46.9%424 W · 480 L	+13.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Over	48c	35$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.2	546	51.3%280 W · 266 L	+29.8wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Under	52c	34.59$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.95	2,144	39.6%849 W · 1,295 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2126…aeebbacked Under	55c	33.42$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.22	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under	61c	33.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.36	3,457	51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L	+108.1wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Under	77c	32$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.64	267	51.7%138 W · 129 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under	42c	28.77$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	1,173	29%340 W · 833 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e08…d327backed Over	56c	28.68$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.62	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed Over	44c	28.15$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.64	536	44.6%239 W · 297 L	-11.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Over	54c	27.65$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.72	1,245	56.9%708 W · 537 L	+31.4wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf1…7cb7backed Over	56c	26.52$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.67	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-3.9wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x237f…e76ebacked Over	55c	24.09$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.91	172	55.8%96 W · 76 L	+8.1wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28a3…8620backed Over	57c	22.81$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.81	320	54.1%173 W · 147 L	-10.0wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Under	57c	20.84$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.83	2,223	55.4%1,231 W · 992 L	+73.9wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Under	55c	19.23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.65	830	53%440 W · 390 L	+12.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
New York Mets vs. Atlanta BravesNew York Mets won
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 13.5Under won
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)New York Mets won
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)New York Mets won
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Atlanta BravesNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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