MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x520bf37de12218594aeb824dd3b35479f79c20e48a9bd8963c6b98feea1751fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 13c | 22,413$3,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,021.94 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 58c | 6,200$3,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,581.11 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 44c | 3,850$1,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,701.95 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…3f6abacked Yes | 56c | 1,544$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.94 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed No | 59c | 1,327$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.41 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 61c | 1,115$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.2 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked No | 73c | 957.36$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.73 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 58c | 648$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.04 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 58c | 529$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.91 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…00d5backed No | 73c | 500.21$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.06 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3afdbacked Yes | 57c | 434.55$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 53c | 428.45$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.11 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 59c | 355$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.09 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…7bf8backed No | 62c | 290$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 53c | 261.7$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.6 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd4…91f7backed No | 56c | 233.62$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.79 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Yes | 50c | 204$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 48c | 198$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74a…25a2backed No | 73c | 191.79$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked No | 68c | 182$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…2988backed Yes | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed No | 47c | 149.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.49 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 45c | 140.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c0…0974backed No | 73c | 139.38$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Yes | 53c | 130.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.27 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc83…fdd4backed No | 53c | 128.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 80c | 122.85$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Yes | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 48c | 96.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 57c | 58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Yes | 53c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 46.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked Yes | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 49c | 37.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 61c | 36.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf10…b9b0backed No | 64c | 34.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a5…3da0backed Yes | 54c | 20.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Yes | 53c | 20.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Atlanta Bravesthis page
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta BravesNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 13.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.