MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1255292d98c6cf369171495f8ea101ab3200992e923ae7021f917b0dd2c4c28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 73c | 5,330$3,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.38 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Chicago White Sox | 63c | 4,762$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.9 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 27c | 3,665$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 1,543$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.21 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 1,417$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.26 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 1,297$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.81 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 852.94$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.59 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Chicago Cubs | 26c | 643.73$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.37 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 600$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 440$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Chicago Cubs | 19c | 307.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Chicago Cubs | 26c | 288.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -9.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 263$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Chicago Cubs | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Chicago Cubs | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 170$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 151.21$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Chicago Cubs | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Chicago Cubs | 26c | 89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 77.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…76b4backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 53.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d91…5c20backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago White Sox | 61c | 16.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9f…5b6fbacked Chicago White Sox | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.