MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf06e2a81efaf4af25f4dabfaa013178c9e3ce5e7746b69a71208401964d80c83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 49c | 2,095$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.54 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 56c | 1,657$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.89 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 1,337$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 705.59$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.68 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 52c | 640.38$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.38 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 390.31$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.16 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 34c | 308.1$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 30c | 289.41$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 51c | 210$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…1ef3backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…017fbacked Under | 49c | 177$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.73 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 43c | 173.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 29c | 164.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 51c | 135.25$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 127.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 54c | 122.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 50c | 103$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 49c | 81.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 71c | 69.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 29c | 64.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 49c | 44.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 51c | 44.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…d14dbacked Under | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Over | 52c | 28.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 704 | 50.1%353 W · 351 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.