MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cc77330806f33d95175db0fbda509c56e19edd7ebd5190f1972c035ea5fbf69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 4,139$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,620.41 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 1,901$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.52 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Chicago Cubs | 66c | 1,150$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.5 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 972.02$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.82 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 581.34$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.25 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 471.09$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.87 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 19c | 454.61$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…f25dbacked Chicago Cubs | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 440$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 400$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 391.4$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.41 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Chicago White Sox | 35c | 357.14$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.14 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Chicago White Sox | 34c | 351.96$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.29 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 233.53$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.41 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Chicago White Sox | 35c | 230.44$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.79 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 199$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.53 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 145.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.27 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 135.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Chicago White Sox | 35c | 104$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Chicago Cubs | 32c | 83.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Chicago Cubs | 31c | 72.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 65.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago Cubs | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Chicago White Sox | 35c | 36.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Chicago White Sox | 35c | 34.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Chicago Cubs | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.