NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe12a44739e287b6fea58ad629c969901bdc4c6dfd4c5938a3a5c0743248206e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x995e…13aebacked Over | 59c | 2,418$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 1,920$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.33 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 42c | 652.99$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.29 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Over | 62c | 484.48$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.48 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 27c | 461.71$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.86 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 79c | 346$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 41c | 300.98$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 41c | 237.46$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 54c | 234.78$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 140.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 71c | 118$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 35c | 114$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…552cbacked Over | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 66c | 72.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 44c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…04cbbacked Over | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 56c | 52.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ec…7b98backed Over | 61c | 50.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Under | 41c | 42.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 24.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…d09cbacked Over | 62c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5this page
- Capitals vs. RangersRangers won
- Capitals vs. Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Rangers won
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.