NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cb7a50b2f35c8dc95071b74d5ca854994a9ed5c9680f6f2b5c94ee9e701286a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rangersof Capitals, Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $182,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9976…67dabacked Capitals | 31c | 172,883$53,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,573.67 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Rangers | 69c | 146,935$101,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,549.94 | 403 | 51.9%209 W · 194 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Rangers | 69c | 14,619$10,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,531.84 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rangers | 69c | 6,006$4,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,861.86 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rangers | 69c | 5,632$3,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,745.92 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Rangers | 69c | 2,137$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.47 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Rangers | 70c | 1,340$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Rangers | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Rangers | 69c | 829.33$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.4 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Rangers | 69c | 320$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Rangers | 70c | 280.58$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed Rangers | 70c | 280.57$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Rangers | 69c | 267.72$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Capitals | 30c | 159.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rangers | 77c | 150.26$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rangers | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Rangers | 69c | 118.9$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Rangers | 69c | 77.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Capitals | 31c | 74.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Rangers | 69c | 73.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 208 | 57.7%120 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…ec56backed Rangers | 69c | 73.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Rangers | 69c | 70.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Rangers | 71c | 69.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Capitals | 22c | 69.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Capitals | 30c | 67.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 719 | 52.4%377 W · 342 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed Capitals | 31c | 61.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Rangers | 69c | 56.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Rangers | 75c | 55.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 208 | 55.8%116 W · 92 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…0cd7backed Rangers | 71c | 55.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf342…a5e9backed Capitals | 31c | 46.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Rangers | 70c | 43.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Rangers | 69c | 37.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 135 | 49.6%67 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4b…8616backed Rangers | 71c | 35.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 173 | 43.4%75 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2af7…37e2backed Rangers | 69c | 30.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Rangers | 69c | 29.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Rangers | 70c | 29.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…bad3backed Rangers | 71c | 23.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Rangers | 69c | 23.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95fc…10f6backed Rangers | 70c | 22.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Rangers | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Rangers | 72c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. RangersRangers won
- Capitals vs. Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.