NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x040292de201defdfbe2dd2daca09762ba956fc04c2c480a6ba5f1e2aef11d5b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e65…4994backed Under | 56c | 4,407$2,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,472 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 44c | 4,000$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,240 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 21c | 3,283$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.31 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 56c | 2,248$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 44c | 1,346$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.66 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 47c | 1,217$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.35 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Over | 45c | 1,100$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.86 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Under | 23c | 862.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 77c | 599.99$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e8…100fbacked Under | 55c | 530$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.01 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 457.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.88 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 53c | 396.2$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.2 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 57c | 353$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.04 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 46c | 265.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.64 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…c7a9backed Under | 19c | 253.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 54c | 228.05$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.19 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Over | 76c | 190$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 43c | 182.19$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.85 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 43c | 150$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 46c | 149.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.97 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 44c | 105$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Under | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…007abacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 46c | 92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 54c | 69.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…7f4ebacked Under | 55c | 68.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a1…9db5backed Over | 46c | 48.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed Under | 43c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 57c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…dfdabacked Under | 55c | 40.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…853bbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Over | 45c | 30.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7f…665cbacked Over | 59c | 28.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 55c | 18.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5this page
- Capitals vs. RangersRangers won
- Capitals vs. Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Rangers won
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.