MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1509c0c83758295682fda1ea2ccc00bee7f088c0b3c4786fa48f7cd3418ccf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 69c | 13,547$9,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,134.59 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 9,113$2,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,741.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 4,949$2,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,029.02 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 2,887$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.46 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 2,733$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.47 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 2,250$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.55 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 1,742$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.06 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 1,270$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.87 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 1,043$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.34 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 999.98$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Detroit Tigers | 59c | 999.98$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.99 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 881.52$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.72 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 757.88$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.15 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 565.27$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.54 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 496.11$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.76 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…a968backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 286.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.66 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Detroit Tigers | 59c | 279.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.79 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cleveland Guardians | 9c | 211.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 181.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 134.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 112.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 102$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 96.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 92.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 91.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 71.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 44.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 44.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 197 | 59.9%118 W · 79 L | +21.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…b5e5backed Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 37.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x692c…aadebacked Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 27.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Detroit Tigers | 51c | 23.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.